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Nigeria’s earnings from crude fall 43% despite higher output

Figures in the fourth-quarter Budget Implementation Report show gross profit dropped to N1.08 trillion in 2024, down from N1.90 trillion the previous year — a decline of 43.3%. The performance was also 26.3% below the government’s target of N1.46 trillion, underscoring continued weak fiscal inflows from oil despite recent reforms.

Total oil and gas revenue before deductions stood at N15.07 trillion, missing the N19.99 trillion target by N4.93 trillion, or 24.7%.

Compared with 2023, however, inflows rose sharply from N8.36 trillion, an 80% increase driven largely by higher royalties, penalties and exchange-rate gains following the naira’s depreciation.

Oil receipts rose from N3.35 trillion in the first quarter to N3.91 trillion in the fourth but remained below the projected quarterly average of N4.99 trillion. Officials said the shortfall reflected lower-than-assumed oil prices and production.

Oil output fluctuated between 1.4 million and 1.6 million barrels per day, short of the budget benchmark of 1.78 million barrels per day.

Gross profit from crude and gas sales accounted for only about 8% of total oil and gas revenue, highlighting a shift toward taxes and royalties as the dominant contributors. Petroleum Profit Tax and Company Income Tax brought in N6 trillion, while royalties generated N6.99 trillion — nearly triple the previous year, aided by improved compliance and changes under the Petroleum Industry Act.

Gas-flaring penalties rose to N391.26 billion, up 178% from 2023. Incidental revenue from royalty recovery and marginal-field settlements also more than doubled, while pipeline-fee income increased to N35.2 billion.

One of the largest boosts came from exchange-rate gains, which surged to N4.24 trillion from N791.88 billion in 2023 following currency liberalisation.

After deductions, net oil revenue stood at N12.95 trillion — below the N16.98 trillion target but significantly higher than the N4.82 trillion recorded in 2023.

Oil output improves but misses target

The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission reported that crude-oil production rose to 442.21 million barrels in 2024, up 12.6% from 2023. Daily average production increased to 1.43 million barrels per day from 1.27 million barrels.

 

Production recovered in the second half of the year, reaching 1.49 million barrels per day in December, the highest of 2024. Total liquids — crude and condensates — amounted to 492.34 million barrels, up from 451.09 million barrels in 2023.

Despite the gains, output reached only about 80% of the government’s projection. Analysts attribute the shortfall to ongoing infrastructure constraints, crude theft and underinvestment.

Scrutiny over NNPC remittances

The report comes amid renewed scrutiny of remittances by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited. The World Bank earlier said NNPC was transferring only half of the revenue gains from the removal of petrol subsidies, using the remainder to settle arrears.

Documents from the Federation Account Allocation Committee show that the government has extended an ongoing reconciliation of NNPC payments through December 2024 after unresolved discrepancies. NNPC has been instructed to submit actual remittance figures instead of earlier estimates.

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Energy consortium secures $50 billion to build Africa’s second-largest refinery in Nigeria

Nigeria is set to consolidate its dominance in Africa’s oil refining landscape as an international energy consortium secured over $50 billion for the construction of a 500,000-barrel-per-day refinery and a 1,471-hectare free trade zone in Ondo State.

Before this project, Algeria’s Skikda Refinery, with a capacity of about 356,500 barrels per day, held the title of Africa’s second-largest refinery. Once the Ondo refinery becomes operational, it will dethrone Skikda to take that position, making Nigeria home to both the largest and second-largest refining facilities on the continent.

The mega project, spearheaded by Backbone Infrastructure Nigeria Limited (BINL) in partnership with NEFEX Holdings Limited of Canada, represents one of the largest private-sector energy investments in West Africa and is poised to become Africa’s second-largest refinery after the 650,000-barrel-per-day Dangote Refinery in Lagos.

A new phase in Africa’s refining story
According to a statement issued by the firm, the funding followed the execution of a memorandum of understanding (MoU) between BINL and the Ondo State government through the Ondo State Investment Promotion Agency (ONDIPA).

BINL chairman Ken Nnamani led the firm’s leadership team on a courtesy visit to Governor Lucky Aiyedatiwa, where discussions centered on the project’s potential to create thousands of jobs and attract complementary investments in logistics, storage, and distribution.

The establishment of the refineries mark a strategic reversal of a pattern where African countries have exported crude oil while importing petrol, diesel, and aviation fuel at premium costs
The establishment of the refineries mark a strategic reversal of a pattern where African countries have exported crude oil while importing petrol, diesel, and aviation fuel at premium costs

BINL’s vice president for corporate services, Wale Adekola, explained that NEFEX Petroline, the project’s partner, brings extensive expertise from operations spanning the Middle East, Europe, and North America.

“NEFEX Petroline combines the advantages of a global network with deep local understanding,” Adekola said, emphasizing the venture’s long-term developmental impact.

Complementing Dangote and transforming Africa’s fuel market
The refinery is designed to supply refined petroleum products locally and across Africa, complementing Dangote’s existing capacity and strengthening Nigeria’s foothold as the continent’s energy hub.

Together, these two mega refineries could process more than 1.1 million barrels of crude per day, marking a transformative milestone for a continent that has long struggled with limited refining capacity and a heavy reliance on imported fuels.

This figure is projected to rise to nearly 2 million barrels per day once Dangote completes its planned expansion, which will boost the refinery’s capacity from 650,000 to 1.4 million barrels per day. This would cement Nigeria’s status as a global refining powerhouse and a central force in Africa’s energy transformation.

For decades, African countries have exported crude oil while importing petrol, diesel, and aviation fuel at premium costs, a paradox that has drained foreign reserves and exposed economies to global price shocks. Projects like Dangote’s and BINL’s mark a strategic reversal of this pattern.

By boosting local refining output, Africa is gradually moving toward energy self-sufficiency, aiming to supply its own markets and export refined products across the continent.

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NUPRC rejects N8.4tr oil theft report, says crude losses down 90%

The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) has dismissed a report alleging that Nigeria lost N8.41 trillion to oil theft between 2021 and 2025, insisting that crude oil losses have dropped by more than 90 percent over the period.

In a statement signed by Eniola Akinkuotu, Head of Media and Strategic Communications, the commission described the report, published by one of Nigeria’s dailies (not The Guardian) on Wednesday, September 24, 2025, as a misrepresentation of official data.

According to the NUPRC, the figures cited were derived from a flawed methodology and incorrect exchange rate assumptions.

“In the misleading report, an exchange rate of N1,500/$1 is used from 2021 to 2025 to increase the figures and sensationalise actual losses when in actual fact, Nigeria’s exchange rate was less than N430 on the official market and barely N600/$1 on average between 2021 and mid-2023. The N8.41 trillion is therefore inaccurate,” the statement read.

The commission explained that when it released crude loss statistics earlier this month, it was done in the spirit of transparency and in compliance with the Petroleum Industry Act, 2021. It noted that crude oil theft, which stood at 102,900 barrels per day in 2021, had dropped to 9,600 barrels per day in 2025—the lowest since 2009.

“The collaborative efforts between the NUPRC, the Office of the National Security Adviser, the military, operators and other stakeholders, through both kinetic and non-kinetic means, have yielded results. Losses have been reduced by over 90 percent,” the commission stated.

Nigeria’s oil output hits 1.63 mbpd in August
The regulator further pointed to the National Bureau of Statistics’ latest report, which showed a 4.23 percent growth in Nigeria’s economy, attributing the improvement partly to increased oil production. It argued that this performance confirmed steady progress in combating crude theft and restoring output levels.

The NUPRC also maintained that Nigeria has been meeting its OPEC quota due to ongoing industry initiatives, including the Project 1 Million Barrels programme, metering audits, restoration of shut-in strings, increased rig counts, and creation of alternative evacuation mechanisms.

It added that Nigeria now possesses the technical capacity to produce above two million barrels per day and that the commission is working with operators, service providers, rig owners, off-takers, and financiers to expand production within an improved operating environment.

On its dispute with the newspaper, the commission criticised the paper for failing to seek clarification before publication.

“The story also fails the integrity test as no attempt was made by the reporter to get a clarification from the commission in the spirit of fairness and balanced reporting,” the statement said.

The NUPRC called on media organisations to verify statistics with relevant authorities before publishing, stressing that inquiries could be directed to its corporate communications department.

News

NNPCL gets ₦318bn for frontier oil search in eight months

The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) has received ₦318.05 billion between January and August 2025 for frontier oil exploration, according to documents from the September Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) meeting.

The deductions represent 30% of Production Sharing Contract (PSC) profits, automatically set aside monthly for exploration in inland basins under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2021.

The law created the Frontier Exploration Fund, managed by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), to drive oil search across under-explored basins such as Anambra, Bida, Dahomey, Sokoto, Chad and Benue.

In July, the NUPRC unveiled its 2025 Frontier Basin Exploration and Development Plan, outlining seismic surveys, stress-field detection, and drilling programmes, including the logging of the Eba-1 well in Dahomey, a new wildcat in Bida, and reassessment of old wells in Chad.

Read Also: Naira hits 15-month high of N1,490 on black market amid low demand

Analysis of FAAC data shows PSC profits totalled ₦1.06 trillion in the eight months — below the ₦1.58 trillion budgeted — but the 30% deduction was consistently applied.

January: ₦31.77bn

February: ₦38.30bn

March: ₦61.49bn (sharp surge)

April: ₦36.58bn (40% drop)

May: ₦38.8bn

June: ₦6.83bn (lowest so far)

July: ₦25.34bn

August: ₦78.94bn (highest so far)

By August, allocations had accumulated to ₦318.05bn. A parallel 30% deduction also went to NNPCL as management fees, bringing its total take to ₦636.1bn in eight months.

The 40% share of PSC profits that flows into the Federation Account has been hit by the deductions. Year-to-date, the account received ₦424.07bn — ₦207.5bn below target.

Compounding the pressure, NNPCL has yet to remit a kobo of its interim dividends budgeted at ₦2.17 trillion for the year. A FAAC subcommittee has demanded that the oil firm provide detailed financial records of all frontier exploration projects by September 19, but documents note the exercise is still “work in progress.”

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Dangote Refinery reviving moribund companies in Nigeria — MAN

The Kano-Jigawa branch of the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) has lauded Dangote Refinery and Petrochemicals for its role in revitalising struggling companies in the country.

According to the association, the refinery’s intervention through the reduction of diesel prices and the steady availability of petroleum products has provided significant relief to manufacturers grappling with high energy costs.

Speaking on the sideline of the ongoing MAN Annual Products Exhibition, taking place at Sani Abacha SAtadium in Kano, the branch chairman of MAN Kano and Jigawa, Muhammad Bello Isyaku Umar, noted that the measures were already helping “dying companies come back to life” by reducing production expenses, stabilising operations, and sustaining jobs.

The association explained that access to affordable diesel is critical to the survival of many small and medium-scale industries in Nigeria, particularly those outside the national grid or in areas plagued by inconsistent power supply.

MAN reiterated its commitment to partnering with the refinery and other stakeholders to strengthen the manufacturing sector, describing the Dangote Refinery as a game-changer in the country’s quest for industrial sustainability and self-reliance.

Umar said the exhibition, which has Dangote Industries Limited as one of the major sponsors, is bringing together top manufacturers, entrepreneurs, policymakers, and consumers in a showcase of innovation, quality, and resilience in the nation’s economy.

He explained that the refinery would reduce the country’s reliance on imported petroleum products, while supporting local manufacturing.

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FG pledges to sustain incentives as Chevron vows continued investment

The Federal Government has reaffirmed its commitment to maintaining investment-friendly policies in the oil and gas sector, pledging measures to keep Nigeria competitive in the global energy market.

Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Senator Heineken Lokpobiri, gave the assurance during an inspection of the Escravos Gas-to-Liquids (EGTL) facility operated under the NNPC/Chevron Nigeria Limited joint venture in Delta State.

Lokpobiri said the administration is focused on boosting production through sustained capital inflows, stressing that viable oil blocks should not remain dormant.

“Where you are not ready to develop, it’s better to farm out to partners rather than wait decades,” he said, adding that the government is considering enforcing the “drill or drop” provision in the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) to ensure optimal asset utilization.

Chevron Nigeria Limited’s General Manager for the joint venture, Segun Kuteyi, said the company is increasing investments to monetise existing resources, describing the minister’s visit as a strong signal of the administration’s seriousness about collaboration.

Also speaking, Chevron Chairman and Managing Director, Jim Schwartz, said government backing and the PIA have been instrumental in sustaining the company’s interest in Nigeria.
“We have a lot of resources we still want to develop here that will enable production growth,” he said.

The visit comes amid ongoing efforts to attract fresh investment into Nigeria’s oil and gas industry, which has faced production challenges in recent years despite its vast reserves.

Industry Manufacturing News

‘How Nigeria can leverage $4.2b African lubricant market’

Group Chairman of Oilden Energies, Oluwatoni Oladiran, has disclosed that Nigeria can maximise opportunities in the continent’s lubricants market, currently valued at $4.2 billion.

Addressing journalists on the forthcoming product launch and subsidiary unveiling in Lagos, he disclosed that Nigeria alone accounts for over 600 million litres in yearly lubricant consumption.

He observed that globally, the top 30 suppliers collectively account for over 70 per cent of global production capacity, adding that their goal is to take a rightful place among them.

While saying Oilden Energies is proudly 100 per cent Nigerian-owned, he added that the mission is to deliver petroleum services of the highest quality, onshore and offshore, and provide world-class products at competitive prices for domestic and international markets.

He stated: “So far, we are making measurable strides towards this goal. Our state-of-the-art lubricant plant currently produces over 40,000 metric tonnes yearly when working at full capacity, meeting 25 per cent of Nigeria’s industrial grease and lubricant demand. By 2028, we are on track to expand capacity to 60,000 metric tonnes, enabling us to capture 67 per cent of the domestic market while deepening our footprint across West and Central Africa.”

The growth, he explained, is powered by innovation, rigorous quality control, and a motivated workforce of highly skilled professionals dedicated to excellence. Oladiran said that every facility they run, every product they release, and every piece of equipment they deploy is designed to meet or exceed API, ISO, and NLGI world-class standards.

To him, one of the firm’s strongest value propositions is price and supply stability. He said that through robust local production and an integrated supply chain, they shield their clients from unpredictable dollar exchange rate fluctuations. Newspaper subscription bundles

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Energy Centre applauds Komolafe as NUPRC records N5.21tr revenue in Q1 2025

The Energy Policy Advancement Centre (EPAC) has commended the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) for generating N5.21 trillion in the first half of 2025, describing it as a clear demonstration of strategic revenue management in Nigeria’s oil and gas sector.

In a statement signed by its Director-General, Dr. Ibrahim Musa, EPAC said the mid-year performance under the leadership of NUPRC Chief Executive, Gbenga Komolafe, shows what is possible when regulation is matched with foresight, accountability, and determination.

Figures from the commission’s latest report to the Federation Accounts Allocation Committee (FAAC) revealed that the January–June 2025 earnings represent 42.7 per cent of the record N12.2 trillion revenue achieved in the entire 2024 fiscal year. The inflows came from royalties, gas sales, flared gas penalties, and joint venture proceeds.

EPAC noted that NUPRC’s strong showing was achieved despite the volatility of the global oil market and domestic production challenges, adding that the performance strengthens the country’s fiscal position at a time of significant budgetary demands.

“NUPRC has shown that with deliberate strategies and a results-oriented approach, Nigeria can unlock more value from its upstream petroleum sector. This is not just about impressive figures—it is about building the confidence that our institutions can deliver on ambitious national targets,” he said.Newspaper subscription bundles

The report indicated that the commission’s earnings include N1.04 trillion from Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) joint venture and production sharing contract royalty receivables, alongside N315.93 billion from Project Gazelle receipts in January and March 2025.

It also highlighted that NNPCL’s JV royalty receivables from October 2022 to June 2025 amounted to N6.60 trillion, underscoring the cumulative effect of delayed remittances from oil companies.

Musa particularly applauded the NUPRC’s debt recovery drive, which yielded \$459,226 from outstanding obligations—part of a cumulative \$1.436 billion owed from crude oil lifting contracts. This recovery, he said, was a product of rigorous reconciliation processes between NNPCL and FAAC, overseen by the Technical Sub-Committee of the Alignment Committee on the Reconciliation of Indebtedness.

For 2025, the Federal Government has tasked the commission with raising N15 trillion to fund national expenditure. EPAC said that while the mid-year figure of N5.21 trillion represents 34.7 per cent of this target, the pace of achievement so far—combined with strategic arrears recovery and potential production boosts—suggests that the goal remains within reach.

Musa stressed that what sets the current performance apart is not only the quantum of revenue but also the discipline with which it is being pursued. He said the commission’s approach to expanding its revenue base while maintaining transparency should serve as a model for other public institutions.

“NUPRC has moved beyond passive regulation to active value generation. This is the kind of institutional energy Nigeria needs—one that does not see targets as threats but as opportunities to innovate and excel,” he said. Newspaper subscription bundles

EPAC urged oil companies and relevant agencies to align with the commission’s momentum by ensuring timely payments, compliance with regulations, and support for upstream investments that can further raise output and earnings.

“We are in an era where every revenue stream matters. With the right cooperation, there is no reason the N15 trillion target cannot be met or even surpassed. The NUPRC has set the tone; it is now up to all stakeholders to match that commitment,” he said.

The Energy Policy Advancement Centre emphasised that the commission’s mid-year achievement should serve as a reminder of the critical role upstream petroleum revenues play in Nigeria’s economic stability, and why sustained reforms in the sector must remain a national priority.

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Gas-centric transition strategy to curb flaring by 2030 – NUPRC

The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) says its gas-centric transition strategy aims to eliminate routine flaring by 2030 and reduce methane by 60 per cent by 2031.

The commission’s Chief Executive, Gbenga Komolafe, made this known on Wednesday at the ongoing 24th Nigeria Oil and Gas (NOG) Energy Week conference 2025.

In his keynote address at a strategic session titled “Positioning Nigeria’s Upstream Oil and Gas for Energy Security, Sustainability and Economic Resilience,” Komolafe said the strategy would monetise vast gas reserves, creating thousands of green jobs in the process.

He revealed that the strategy was supported by initiatives such as the Decade of Gas, the Nigeria Gas Flare Commercialisation Programme (NGFCP) and the Presidential Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) Initiative.

“Nigeria is building Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) capacity, deploying floating infrastructure, and leading cross-border pipeline development to fuel not only its own economy, but Africa’s industrial renaissance.
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“Further anchoring this ambition is Nigeria’s Upstream Decarbonisation Framework, which integrates emissions tracking, MRV systems, carbon capture, and climate finance access through carbon markets.

“These aren’t just policies; they are opportunities for investment, innovation, and inclusive growth,” he said.

He recalled that in March 2025, it inaugurated the Decarbonisation and Energy Sustainability Forum and formally declared March 18 as Nigeria’s Upstream Decarbonisation Day.

He said the annual event would serve as a rallying point for stakeholders to track progress, share knowledge, and accelerate climate-aligned development.

“Interestingly, we are enabling emissions reductions to become revenue streams through a new ecosystem of carbon services, including monitoring, consulting, tech deployment, while maintaining high environmental and asset integrity,” Komolafe added.

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Shell pledges support for Nigeria’s ambitions for energy sufficiency

Shell says it will continue to explore opportunities to invest in Nigeria as the country aims to achieve energy abundance.

Speaking at a panel session at the 2025 Nigeria Oil and Gas Conference in Abuja , Managing Director, Shell Nigeria Exploration and Production Company Ltd (SNEPCo) Ronald Adams referred to the expansion of its stake in the Bonga field, the FID on Bonga North and several other projects being considered including Bonga Southwest and HI as Shell’s vote of confidence in the future of Nigeria. But he declined to give specific timing on FIDs including that on HI.

Discussions at the panel session were based on the theme, “Pragmatically Achieving Energy Abundance,” and featured chief executives of oil companies and government functionaries who proposed steps towards achieving energy sufficiency as Nigeria targets net-zero emissions from fossil fuel by 2050.

Ronald said SNEPCo would build on its contributions to energy abundance by becoming more efficient and improve value across the value chain by working closely with the Nigerian Upstream Investment Management Services (NUIMS) and other stakeholders. “There is a requirement for us to push the envelope. We cannot rest on our oars,” he said.

He explained that Nigeria can achieve the ambition of net-zero emissions and at the same time provide cost-effective and efficient energy for a rising population by optimizing investments in hydrocarbon energy sources and quick renewable opportunities.

On the efforts of Shell towards net-zero emissions, the Managing Director said the company’s refreshed Powering Progress strategy aims to accelerate the transition “purposefully and profitably to low-carbon businesses by the early 2030s.”

He added: “It is important that government continues to support these efforts and those of other industry players through the right polices and creation of a conducive environment for businesses to thrive.”