Author: Sasforde

Analysts have cut price forecasts for European Union carbon permits for 2024 to 2026 following record low figures last year for emissions covered by Europe’s carbon market.

EU Allowances (EUAs) are forecast on average at 63.96 euros a metric ton this year and 74.00 euros in 2025, a Reuters survey of eight analysts showed, down 13.7% and 11.2% respectively from forecasts made in January.
The average forecast for the second quarter of this year was 62.30 euros a ton, down 18.8% from the January forecast of 76.76 euros a ton.

The EU’s Emissions Trading System (ETS) forces manufacturers, power companies and airlines to pay for each ton of carbon dioxide they emit by surrendering carbon allowances as part of Europe’s efforts to meet its climate targets.
Data published by the European Commission earlier this month showed 2023 emissions covered by the ETS fell a record 15.5% as renewable power output soared.

“EUA fundamentals continue to look bearish for the remainder of the year, with power emissions likely to post another significant year-on-year drop in 2024,” said Trevor Sikorski, head of natural gas and carbon at Energy Aspects.

The benchmark EU carbon contract currently trades around 66 euros a ton and has fallen almost 20% since the start of the year. Paula VanLaningham, director of carbon research at LSEG, said signs of improved industrial activity in some sectors and demand for permits from the shipping sector could help lift prices from current levels by the end of the year and into 2025.

“That said, we don’t expect these more bullish factors to have a significant impact on prices much ahead of 2025, barring a massive change in the geopolitical picture,” she said.

The shipping industry was included in the ETS from January this year with shipping firms needing to surrender permits to cover 40% of intra-EU voyages for 2024, rising to 70% in 2025 and 100% in 2026.
The average price forecast for 2026 was 92.48 euros a ton, down 7.6% from the January forecast of 100.13 euros a ton.

The International Energy Agency has disclosed that clean energy has added $320bn to the world economy, accounting for 10 per cent of global GDP growth on Tuesday.

IEA is at the heart of global dialogue on energy, providing authoritative analysis, data, policy recommendations, and real-world solutions to help countries provide secure and sustainable energy for all.

In its latest report titled, ‘Clean energy is boosting economic growth’ on Tuesday, IEA analysts highlight how clean energy is becoming a powerful force for global economic growth.

IEA said, “In 2023, clean energy added around $320 billion to the world economy – accounting for 10% of global GDP growth.”

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The energy analyst, in a report posted and obtained by PUNCH Online, said clean energy is moving towards centre stage in the global energy system and as its importance rises, a new clean energy economy is emerging.

“Clean electricity accounted for around 80% of new capacity additions to the world’s electricity system in 2023, and electric vehicles for around one out of five cars sold globally.

“Global investment in clean energy manufacturing is booming, driven by industrial policies and market demand. Employment in clean energy jobs exceeded that of fossil fuels in 2021 and continues to grow.

Our new country-by-country and sector-by-sector analysis finds that in 2023, clean energy added around USD 320 billion to the world economy. This represented 10% of global GDP growth – equivalent to more than the value added by the global aerospace industry in 2023, or to adding an economy the size of the Czech Republic to global output.”

In its new commentary, IEA further explained, “We conducted this analysis at the country level, and present here the in-depth results for four of the largest economies: the United States, the European Union, China and India, which together account for two-thirds of global GDP.

“GDP in the United States grew by a robust 2.5% in 2023. Clean energy was an important contributor: The Inflation Reduction Act and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law drove a surge in investment in clean energy manufacturing, and sales of EVs also grew strongly.”

Clean energy accounted for around “one-fifth of China’s 5.2% GDP growth in 2023. Each of the three categories assessed grew strongly, with the largest increase coming from investment in clean power capacity, followed by clean equipment sales, particularly EVs.”

“Expansion in clean energy manufacturing accounted for around 5% of China’s GDP growth in 2023, although the country’s surplus production capacity in technologies such as batteries (utilisation rates were around 30% in 2023) may limit the scope of this growth driver going forward.

“In the European Union, clean energy accounted for nearly one-third of GDP growth in 2023, the highest share of any region assessed, although its share is inflated by weak overall GDP growth of around 0.5%.

“India was the fastest growing large economy in 2023, with GDP increasing by around 7.7%. Clean energy contributed slightly less than 5% of GDP growth in 2023, predominantly from investment in new solar power capacity.”

Stakeholders in the petroleum and transport sector have said that the Federal Government’s initiative aimed at promoting the use of Compressed Natural Gas-powered vehicles nationwide is facing a major challenge due to inadequate CNG stations in the country.

CNG can be used in place of petrol, diesel, and liquefied petroleum gas. It is used in traditional petrol/internal combustion engine automobiles or specifically manufactured vehicles.

President Bola Tinubu approved the establishment of the Presidential Compressed Natural Gas initiative last year, targeting over 11,500 new CNG-enabled vehicles.

Also included in the target are 55,000 CNG conversion kits for existing PMS-dependent vehicles as the initiative seeks to strengthen in-country manufacturing, local assembly, and expansive job creation in line with the presidential directive.

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However, stakeholders in the petroleum and transport sectors have lamented that the absence of the needed CNG stations is frustrating the FG’s initiative and stalling the massive roll-out and use of CNG-powered buses.

An insider in the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, who is not authorised to comment on the issue, in a chat with PUNCH Online, however, said that the government is making efforts to encourage and support the establishment of CNG stations.

She noted that the regulatory framework for CNG is designed to ensure the safety of consumers and promote fair competition.

“We are working closely with stakeholders to monitor the establishment of gas filling stations, adherence to safety standards, and creating an environment where Nigerians can confidently adopt CNG,” she said.

Also speaking with our correspondent, an energy analyst and CNG expert, Dr Amina Yusuf, harped on the need to establish more CNG buses, adding that CNG offers Nigeria a unique opportunity to address both environmental and economic challenges.

“Its cleaner emissions profile and domestic availability position it as a viable alternative to traditional fuels, reducing carbon footprints while enhancing energy security,” Yusuf said.

However, in various cities, especially in Lagos, Abuja, and Ogun state, our Correspondent gathered that the introduction of CNG has garnered mixed reactions from users. While some individuals and businesses welcome the opportunity to contribute to cleaner air and reduce costs and emissions, others express concerns about the accessibility of refilling stations and the overall feasibility of the transition.

PUNCH Online findings from drivers, commuters, and major gas marketers confirmed that a major hindrance to the CNG-powered bus initiative is the absence of the needed stations.

They also harped on the urgent need for a robust network of CNG stations to support the adoption of natural gas as a cleaner and more sustainable alternative to conventional fuels for vehicles.

A CNG-powered vehicle
The drivers, commuters, and gas marketers in separate encounters told our correspondent that despite Nigeria’s abundant natural gas reserves, the lack of sufficient filling infrastructure restricts the accessibility and viability of CNG-powered vehicles.

A CNG-powered commercial car driver on the Lagos-Ibadan expressway, Tanimola Ibrahim said: “I was initially skeptical about the use of CNG due to the upfront cost of converting my vehicle. However, the fuel savings and the smoother engine performance convinced me of its benefits.

“I hope more CNG filling stations will be established across the country to make it more convenient for drivers like me.”

A business owner and CNG-powered vehicle user, Chidinma Okafor, said she has switched her delivery fleet to using CNG while describing it as a game-changer.

“Not only am I contributing to cleaner air, but the cost savings over time are substantial. The government’s incentives have eased the transition and made it a win-win for both my business and the environment.”

“It’s been a cost-effective decision. The availability of refilling stations is increasing, and I’m glad to contribute to reducing pollution. It’s a small change that can make a big difference.”

A CNG-powered taxi driver, Suleiman Abubakar said, “As a taxi driver, CNG has significantly lowered my operating costs. With the rising fuel price, it’s a relief to have a more affordable option. I believe as more drivers make the switch, it will not only benefit us but also contribute to a cleaner environment.”

Abubakar, however, also harped on the need for the establishment of more CNG stations.

A truck driver, Musa Idris, speaking with our correspondent stressed the need for the Federal Government to increase awareness of the use of CNG-powered vehicles.

He also urged the FG to partner with the private sector and gas marketers to increase the number of gas stations across the country.

He said, “The major challenge is the inability to access gas stations when driving long distances. This is a big threat to the use of CNG by truck drivers even though we value it more than diesel.

“Diesel and petrol are now expensive, while CNG is cheaper, safer and more economical,” Idris told PUNCH Online.

NNPC, NIPCO partner to establish 35 additional CNG stations

The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited recently announced that it has partnered with NIPCO Gas Limited to construct 35 CNG stations across the country, adding that the partnership aims to provide cheaper alternative fuel to motorists in Nigeria in compliance with President Bola Tinubu’s directive.

The Managing Director, NIPCO Gas Limited, Nagendra Verma, has said that infrastructural development is key to developing the energy sector in Nigeria.

He stated this on Sunday after the conferment of Innovative Gas Company of the Year on the company by Energy Times Newspaper.

According to a statement signed after the awards on Sunday by the Assistant General Manager, Corporate Affairs, NIPCO, Mr Lawal Taofeek, Verma disclosed that since its inception in 2009, NIPCO Gas has been at the forefront of AutoCNG development, with its footprint stretching from Benin City to Ibafo in Ogun State and Kogi State.

The statement read, “The accolade of Most Innovative Gas Company of the Year aptly acknowledges our endeavours in the gas sector, marked by the launch of our inaugural Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) station in Benin City, Edo State, in 2009.

“Currently operating 15 AutoCNG stations nationwide, NIPCO Gas ensures that CNG vehicles originating from Lagos can seamlessly travel as far as Abuja and Kaduna, thanks to strategically located refuelling points along the route.

“The initiative, introduced by NNPC Limited’s Group Chief Executive Officer, Mallam Mele Kyari, is set to offer diverse fuel choices to Nigerians in the wake of the Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) subsidy removal. The goal is to create a network of CNG stations throughout the country. Under the partnership, NIPCO Gas has committed to the construction of 35 CNG Stations initially across states of Nigeria.

“Presently, NIPCO Gas Limited has 16 CNG outlets and has successfully converted over 8,000 vehicles to CNG. The firm’s expertise and experience are instrumental in supporting the government’s renewed efforts to make fuel more economical and to enhance its beneficial impact on the national economy.

“The honour serves as recognition of our steadfast commitment to deepening gas utilization as an alternative automotive fuel. The distinguished award also underscores NIPCO Gas’s firm unwavering focus on expanding the country’s gas infrastructure. We are honoured to have our efforts in the sector as acknowledged in a significant way as you have done.

“NIPCO Gas stands as a prominent energy enterprise, devoted to providing dependable and sustainable energy solutions to Nigerian communities. Prioritizing innovation and ecological stewardship, NIPCO Gas is determined to drive positive transformation in the energy industry, advocating for cleaner options like AutoCNG to foster a more eco-friendly and sustainable future.

“Reflecting our commitment to capitalizing on the nation’s gas potential, we have consistently invested substantial human and material resources in developing infrastructures that bolster viable energy alternatives for both motorists and industrial applications.:

The Chairman, Editorial Board, Energy Times, Mr Yakubu Lawal, said the award is meant to appreciate and recognise those individuals and companies whose works have in one way or the other impacted on the nation’s development.

“As pioneers in the Auto CNG sector , NIPCO has performed excellently which NNPC & FG partners with her to grow gas infrastructure to enable motorist and industries alike to have access to gas as auto fuel.

“The company’s expertise would add value to the nation’s efforts to harness the abundant gas resources in the country as alternative fuel to petrol,” Lawal said.

Despite deregulation, Pinnacle Oil and Gas Limited, an indigenous oil and gas company active across the entire downstream value chain, has disclosed that Nigeria is currently paying about N1 trillion monthly as petrol subsidy.
The Managing Director/CEO of the company, Mr. Robert Dickerman, disclosed this while speaking during a panel session six, on Nigeria’s Downstream Forum at the just-concluded Nigeria International Energy Summit (NIES) in Abuja.

He said there is still a massive subsidy, which explains why the product remains cheap, thus encouraging smuggling to neighboring countries.

He said: “Nigeria has a long history of allocating resources to oil and gas production at the expense of most other economic and social programs. To balance this, there has been a long-standing policy to mitigate consumer costs via palliatives such as fuel and food subsidies.

“But one of the net effects of oil money is underinvestment in local production, manufacturing and other value-added activities that could generate foreign currency through exports. There has also been a large under investment in the maintenance and upgrade of existing infrastructure including electricity, roads, health care, water, waste, education and financial infrastructure such as consumer credit.

“As a result, we have a huge negative trade deficit, except for crude oil and LNG, and our banks are not sufficiently capitalized to support significant new capital programs.

“With legacy monetary policymaking currency exchange difficult, we desperately need Foreign Investment. This is a reality. So the best policy during this time of crisis is a national policy to transform our economy/regulations/laws to accommodate and encourage FDI.

“Foreign investors, foreign lenders and government-run DFIs have been very clear about what they want to see: Conservative fiscal policy, tackling corruption, enabling competitive markets, and enforcement of fairness in markets through policy, regulation and the ability to enforce contracts. Keeping that context in mind, I want to point out that there is still a massive subsidy in PMS, albeit in the FX portion of PMS Price, not the global price in dollars.

“The consequences of this subsidy are: The cost of gasoline in Nigeria is the lowest in Africa by far, which encourages smuggling out, further depriving Nigeria of value. Smuggling causes Nigeria to subsidize neighboring countries even while our economy struggles. The cost is hurting the entire budget, Federal and State, as critical programs cannot be funded to pay this subsidy. It is currently calculated to be about 1 trillion Naira/month.

“Also, with this subsidy in place, ceasing subsidy payments would result in no petrol supply, if there are no refineries producing gasoline. All supplies come from the international market which will only sell at market prices.

There is no competition in bulk supply, as only the national champion owned by the government can import. Wholesale and retail prices are set based on their subsidized cost and they determine who gets supply. Without a competitive market, foreign investors are discouraged from investing in this sector in Nigeria.

The Nigerian Navy, through its Forward Operating Base (FOB) Formoso in Brass Local Government Area of Bayelsa State has destroyed three illegal refining sites (IRS) and a large wooden boat conveying about 160,000 litres of products suspected to be stolen crude oil.
The naval authorities said the operation was in continuation of its fight against crude oil theft and illegal bunkering in the Niger Delta.

The operation was said to be in line with the recently launched Nigerian Navy ‘Operation Delta Sanity’, aimed at ridding illegal oil theft and bunkering activities within the region’s maritime domain.

The Commanding Officer, FOB Formoso, Captain Murtala Aminu Rogo, made this known in an interactive session with reporters at the Naval Base in Brass, yesterday.

He said operatives achieved the feat while carrying out patrols along the Brass River and Akassa general area.

Rogo said during the patrol, two illegal refineries with about 85,000 litres of products suspected to be stolen crude oil and a pumping machine were uncovered at Elepa and Abonuwa areas of Brass LGA.

“While combing other adjoining creeks, the team located the third illegal refining site and a large wooden boat laden with about 75,000 litres of suspected stolen crude oil were discovered around Tuluama area of Brass.

“Accordingly, the three illegal refining sites and one large wooden boat were appropriately destroyed.

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Rogo indicated that the operation was geared towards combing and clearing creeks and channels as well as other places within their area of operations.

He said further investigations into the criminal networks associated with the illegal refinery sites were ongoing.

Rogo asserted that the operation marked a significant step in actualising the objectives of ODS meant to combat crude oil theft and illegal oil bunkering.

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He enjoined the public to cooperate with the Nigerian Navy by providing relevant information that would aid in the ongoing efforts to dismantle the criminal networks.

He emphasized that ODS under the purview of Rear Admiral S.J Bura, the Flag Officer Commanding, Central Naval Command, was resolutely committed to eradicating the scourge of crude oil theft, illegal oil bunkering and other criminal activities within Nigerian waters.

Rogo said: “The Nigerian Navy, under the leadership of Vice Admiral Emmanuel Ikechukwu Ogalla, Chief of Naval Staff (CNS), is committed to maintaining the security and safety of the Nigerian maritime domain, facilitating a conducive environment for legitimate businesses to flourish and contribute to the nation’s strength.”