The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) has dismissed a report alleging that Nigeria lost N8.41 trillion to oil theft between 2021 and 2025, insisting that crude oil losses have dropped by more than 90 percent over the period.
In a statement signed by Eniola Akinkuotu, Head of Media and Strategic Communications, the commission described the report, published by one of Nigeria’s dailies (not The Guardian) on Wednesday, September 24, 2025, as a misrepresentation of official data.
According to the NUPRC, the figures cited were derived from a flawed methodology and incorrect exchange rate assumptions.
“In the misleading report, an exchange rate of N1,500/$1 is used from 2021 to 2025 to increase the figures and sensationalise actual losses when in actual fact, Nigeria’s exchange rate was less than N430 on the official market and barely N600/$1 on average between 2021 and mid-2023. The N8.41 trillion is therefore inaccurate,” the statement read.
The commission explained that when it released crude loss statistics earlier this month, it was done in the spirit of transparency and in compliance with the Petroleum Industry Act, 2021. It noted that crude oil theft, which stood at 102,900 barrels per day in 2021, had dropped to 9,600 barrels per day in 2025—the lowest since 2009.
“The collaborative efforts between the NUPRC, the Office of the National Security Adviser, the military, operators and other stakeholders, through both kinetic and non-kinetic means, have yielded results. Losses have been reduced by over 90 percent,” the commission stated.
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The regulator further pointed to the National Bureau of Statistics’ latest report, which showed a 4.23 percent growth in Nigeria’s economy, attributing the improvement partly to increased oil production. It argued that this performance confirmed steady progress in combating crude theft and restoring output levels.
The NUPRC also maintained that Nigeria has been meeting its OPEC quota due to ongoing industry initiatives, including the Project 1 Million Barrels programme, metering audits, restoration of shut-in strings, increased rig counts, and creation of alternative evacuation mechanisms.
It added that Nigeria now possesses the technical capacity to produce above two million barrels per day and that the commission is working with operators, service providers, rig owners, off-takers, and financiers to expand production within an improved operating environment.
On its dispute with the newspaper, the commission criticised the paper for failing to seek clarification before publication.
“The story also fails the integrity test as no attempt was made by the reporter to get a clarification from the commission in the spirit of fairness and balanced reporting,” the statement said.
The NUPRC called on media organisations to verify statistics with relevant authorities before publishing, stressing that inquiries could be directed to its corporate communications department.