News Power

NNPCL says there is sufficient petrol stock for 30 days, warns against panic buying

The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) has warned the public against panic buying of the premium motor spirit (PMS), also known as petrol, stating that it has about 1.5 billion litres of the product which would be sufficient for 30 days’ supply.

This was disclosed in a statement by the company, noting that queues across fuel stations in the country have reduced significantly over the measures it has taken to address supply scarcity.

It stated, “
As the nationwide supply and distribution of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), also known as petrol, continue to improve, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited has once again called on motorists to shun panic buying of the product.”

“The Company wishes to state that at the moment, it has over 1.5 billion litres stock of PMS, which is equivalent to over 30 days sufficiency.”

The company further noted that it is collaborating with relevant agencies, the Nigerian Mainstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), labour unions and security agents to address uncompetitive practices and hoarding by marketers and distributors.

“It stated,
“The NNPC Ltd. is also collaborating with relevant downstream agencies, such as the Nigeran Midstream & Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), labour unions in the sector and security operatives, to address hoarding and other unwholesome practices.”

Backstory
In the past week, Nigerians have had to queue for petrol due to shortages in the supply of the product, resulting in a significant increase in its pump price across the country.

Although the NNPCL stated that the scarcity would be over in three days, blaming the shortages on logistical and distribution issues. However, the scarcity has lingered on and resulted in a significant increase in transportation costs for members of the public.

Recommended reading: Nigeria to get 20000bdp oil from OML 85 oil platform – NNPC
What you should know
An investigation by Nairametrics revealed that petrol sold for over N700 per litre in Abuja, Lagos and Ogun states. In some places, the price of petrol was as high as N1500 per litre in the “black market” last week.

Furthermore, Nairametrics also reported significant increases in transportation costs following the scarcity and resultant hike in petrol prices. In some cases, the increase in transport fares was as high as 100% and on average there was a 50% increase in transport costs following the scarcity of petrol in Lagos.

Also, the scarcity in transport costs also brought to the fore the discussion on resumption in payment of subsidy for petrol after the removal in 2023. The CEO of Rain Oil, Mr Gabriel Ogbechie, had earlier stated that the Federal Government was spending around N600 billion monthly on fuel subsidy, mainly due to the significant depreciation of the naira.

News Power

NNPCL, NOSL commence oil production at OML 13, target 40,000bpd

The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Exploration and Production Limited (NNPC E&P Ltd.) and its partner, Natural Oilfield Services Ltd. (NOSL), have announced the commencement of crude oil production at Oil Mining Lease (OML) 13 in Akwa Ibom State.

The NNPCL disclosed this in a press statement signed by its Communications Officer, Olufemi Soneye, where it stated that oil production began in the location on the 6th of May 2024 with 6,000 barrels daily.

The company further said that daily oil production in OML 13 is expected to rise to 40,000 barrels per day by the 27th of May 2024.

It stated, “NNPC Exploration and Production Limited (NNPC E&P Ltd.), NNPC Ltd.’s flagship upstream subsidiary, and Natural Oilfield Services Ltd. (NOSL), a subsidiary of Sterling Oil Exploration & Energy Production Company Ltd. (SEEPCO), announce the successful commencement of oil production at Oil Mining Lease (OML) 13 in Akwa Ibom State, Nigeria.”

“The production, which commenced on the 6th of May 2024, with 6,000 barrels of oil, is expected to be ramped up to 40,000 barrels per day by May 27th, 2024.”

Increase in oil production
The company explained that the commencement of crude oil production in OML 13 signifies an intent to increase the volume of oil production in the country to meet local energy needs and propel economic growth.

The statement further read, “The achievement does not only signify the culmination of rigorous planning and execution by the teams involved but also represents a new era of economic empowerment and development opportunities for the host communities.”

“Furthermore, for Nigeria, the first oil from OML 13 holds some significance as it contributes to the country’s efforts to increase its oil production capacity, which is crucial for meeting domestic energy needs and driving economic growth.”

Regarding environmental and sustainability considerations, the NNPCL and its partner promised that its operations would be done in a safe and environmentally responsible manner beneficial to its host community.

What you should know
Production at the OML 13 conventional oil development project was earlier stated to commence in 2024, with peak output anticipated in 2029.

Under the current economic projections, it is expected that production will persist until the field reaches its economic limit in 2063, according to Global data.

Nigeria is desperate to increase oil production to meet local revenue expectations and generate needed foreign exchange (FX). In the first quarter of 2024, Nigeria barely met its OPEC production quota of 1.5 million bpd.

Manufacturing Power

Attention on Nigeria, Africa as nine European refineries shutdown

• Importation of crude oil remains key barrier amidst domestic refining
The global petroleum products market is changing faster than expected as more refineries are shutting down on the backdrop of the push for global warming and energy transition.

At least, nine refineries with the latest being Eni’s Livorno refinery have either shut down or converted into other products at a time when Nigeria and other African countries are building more refineries.

If the trend persists, Africa which had once relied on Europe for petroleum products may now survive by itself amidst tightening geopolitical tensions and rising energy crisis, which may worsen the existing crisis for Africa’s economy.

Eni, had on Monday said its refinery in Livorno would be converted into a biofuels-making facility.

This marks the ninth European refinery closure since 2020, bringing the total lost crude processing capacity to over 1 million barrels per day, including the upcoming closures of Grangemouth and Wesseling in 2025.

Eni plans to convert an 88,400 barrel per day oil refinery into a bioplant, following a similar transformation at Gela. This announcement comes as the second European refinery closure within a week, following the 147,000 barrels per day Wesseling closure in western Germany.

As these assets are closing down as the pressure for carbon footprint and ESG intensifies, the Dangote Refinery in Nigeria is starting. The refinery alone alongside the Nigerian 445,000 refineries is making efforts to come onstream. Along with the 650,000 Dangote refinery, are enough to make up for the loss of over one million barrels per capacity that would be taken off the market.

The Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (oil), Heineken Lokpobiri, had earlier said that about five new licenses were granted for refinery establishment.

While licences are only the first attempt, approximately 18 years ago, private investors sought refinery licenses under former President Olusegun Obasanjo, and during President Muhammed Buhari’s tenure, additional licenses were offered.

These licenses, totalling around 62, could potentially elevate the country’s refining capacity on paper to over 2.3 million barrels per day. This exceeds the nation’s daily crude oil production by one million barrels, raising concerns about the viability of upcoming refineries unless there is a substantial increase in crude oil production.

Presently, the existing refining capacity comprises the Dangote Refinery with a capacity of 650,000 bpd, BUA Refinery with 200,000 bpd, and NNPCL with a combined capacity of 445,000 bpd.

Operational refineries such as OPAC, Walter Smith, Aradel, and Edo, collectively have a capacity of 27,000 barrels per day. Considering these, the operational or soon-to-commence refineries amount to about 1.322 million barrels per day. The remaining refinery licenses, mainly modular refineries with unknown status, contribute close to one million barrels per day in capacity.

Refineries with active Licences to the Establish include BUA Refinery and Petrochemicals, Ogini Refinery Limited, Excel Exploration & Production, Lowrie Refinery Limited, NPDC/ND WESTERN OML 34 JV, Eghudu Refinery, and Kingdom Global Trading Petroleum and Gas Nig.

Refineries with active Approvals to Construct/Relocate comprise Dangote Oil Refinery Company, OPAC Refineries, Waltersmith Refining & Petrochemical Company, Niger Delta Petroleum Resources, Edo Petrochemical Refinery, Etopo Energy Plc, Resource Petroleum & Petrochemicals International Incorporated, Duport Midstream, and Conodit Refinery Nigeria.

Others include Lowrie Refinery, Excel Refinery, Gasoline Associates International, Frao Oil Nigeria, Alexis Refinery, Allegiance Energy and Power, Atlantic International Refineries and Petrochemical, Amakpe International Refinery Inc, Gazingstock Petroleum Company, Azikel Petroleum, and Clairgold Oil & Gas Engineering.

The President of the Crude Oil Refinery Owners Association (CORAN), Momoh Oyarekhua, noted that currently, Nigeria has four operational modular refineries: OPAC refinery, WalterSmith refinery, Aradel refinery, and Edo refinery, with a combined capacity of 27,000 barrels per day.

Although there are indications that the country may through these refineries be able to meet demand for petroleum products, the existing refineries including Dangote are relying on imported crude oil.

Some stakeholders have also expressed fear that the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited may struggle to find 445,000 barrels of crude oil if its refineries come back on stream.

The African Refiners and Distributor Association noted that distribution infrastructure within the African corridor may become a critical challenge even as the continent, with a rapidly growing population, is attempting to refine crude and process gas.

The association has also expressed concerns over the quality of petroleum products coming from across refineries in the continent, stressing that the continent requires over $14 billion to upgrade refineries for much more cleaner and efficient petroleum products.

There is an ongoing collaboration between ARDA and the African Union (AU) on the adoption of harmonised AFRI Clean Fuel Specifications across Africa. These cleaner fuel specs recommend the adoption of AFRI 5 (50 ppm sulphur for gasoline and diesel) by 2025, and the adoption of AFRI 6 specs (10 ppm for the same products) by 2030.

The objective is to stop the importation of fuels that do not meet these AFRI specs into Africa by 2021 and give existing refineries until 2025 to upgrade their facilities to produce cleaner specs.

The ECOWAS Council of Ministers of Hydrocarbons had, in February 2020 recommended product imports to meet AFRI 5 specs by 2021, and for ECOWAS refineries to meet AFRI 5 specs by 2025.

Power

Seplat Energy receives CSR award

Seplat Energy Plc has been honoured with the Social Impact and Sustainability Awards (SISA) Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) award for empowerment. Member of Trustees at Sustainability Professionals Institute of Nigeria and President of the International Network for Corporate Social Responsibility, Eustace Onuegbu, highlighted the significance of these awards in recognizing transformative efforts in Nigerian society.

The award specifically acknowledges organizations that have embraced globally recognized sustainability standards such as ISO 37101 Management Standards on Sustainable Development, ISO 26000 Social Responsibility, ISO 14001 Environmental Management, ISO 9001 Quality Management, ISO 20400 Sustainable Supply Chain Management, ISO 45001 Occupational Health and Safety Management Standards, among others.

The recognition extends to adherence to best reporting standards like GRI and IIRC Standards, as well as initiatives aligned with the UN’s 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and philanthropic contributions.

Seplat Energy’s commitment to educational advancement and stakeholder engagement received a commendation from the award organizers. The company’s notable educational CSR initiatives, including the Seplat Pearl’s Quiz, National Undergraduate Scholarship, SEPLAT Teachers Empowerment Programme (STEP), and Seplat Innovators programme, were highlighted.

Director of External Affairs and Social Performance, Chioma Afe, expressed gratitude for the recognition, emphasizing the company’s dedication to global best practices in social development programs, particularly in host communities.

Afe stressed that Seplat’s educational CSR initiatives align with the company’s seven Principles of Corporate Strategy, emphasizing accountability, transparency, ethical behavior, respect for stakeholders’ interests, adherence to the rule of law, compliance with international norms, and respect for human rights.

Power

Fresh oil production hiccups may distort market stability despite $490b investment

Although about $490 billion is being invested this year to boost crude oil production and plug the supply gap, there are indications that supply shortfall may persist.

The development, which kept the oil price at about $84 per barrel, yesterday, is expected to increase the oil price to $100 per barrel, thereby compounding the current global energy crisis with the inflationary implications.

Coming at a time when Nigeria’s oil production is shrinking following 400, 000 barrels daily loss to theft, the prevailing situation may further worsen the pump prices of petroleum products, escalate the foreign exchange crisis and expand fiscal deficit.

Wood Mackenzie analysts, in a new report on upstream investment, have noted that the oil and gas industry is currently in the third year of an upcycle, with investment in production at $490 billion.

The funding, though significantly higher than the $370 billion low recorded in 2020, upstream analysts at Wood Mackenzie, Fraser McKay and Ian Thom, said much would still be needed to balance supply in the market.

The analysts were specifically worried about the lack of a spare production capacity, which could be viewed as a side effect of newly-found discipline with spending and focus on efficiency while adjusting to a world in transition.

“We expect companies to go for margin rather than market share; and upstream supply chain capacity to creep rather than leap, which has been the traditional response in an upcycle,” McKay and Thom said.

According to them, restraint could lead to a tighter supply chain than the industry has been used to. In Nigeria, the development is worsened by continuous divestment in the industry. Although the country conducted a bid round last year, most international companies are holding back their capital as Nigeria has repeatedly failed to meet its three million barrels daily target.

Amidst the stranded sale of ExxonMobil assets to Seplat, international oil companies have reported divesting assets worth over N20.8 trillion. For instance, Shell plans to divest about $2.3 billion in assets, Eni’s asset divestment is around $5 billion and ExxonMobil would offload $15 billion in assets.

Rystad Energy had initially estimated that Total and ConocoPhillips would divest assets close to $27.5 billion. With dwindling crude oil reserves, now hovering around 37 billion barrels instead of the projected 40 billion barrels, Nigeria’s spending on exploration has been in inland basins in northern states.

Earlier, stakeholders disclosed that Nigeria may see the coming onstream of over $32.5 billion worth of oil and gas projects as the Nigeria National Petroleum Company Limited and International Oil Companies operating in the country yesterday show readiness to sign final investment decisions (FIDs) on some projects.

The development came on the backdrop of the payment of $3.8 billion to oil operators in the country to clear all outstanding Joint Venture (JV) cash-call debts, which may see Shell alone decide on $19 billion worth of projects in the next 10 years, Managing Director of Shell, Osagie Okunbor said.

News Power

Nigeria needs reliable energy for industrialisation – Tinubu

President Bola Tinubu has said that Nigeria’s plans to become industrialised, create jobs and achieve economic growth cannot be achieved if reliable energy is not generated, transmitted and distributed.

Tinubu said this at the groundbreaking ceremony of the Gwagwalada Independent Power Plant (GIPP) Project held in Abuja on Friday.

He reiterated that he had promised to prioritize energy availability and stability while using available energy resources to increase power generation beyond the current capacity and strengthen the integrity of the transmission infrastructure while distribution bottlenecks are removed.

“We cannot be productive without energy efficiency; To accelerate our economic growth, we must remove every obstacle on our way to progress,” he said.

In his address, Mele Kyari, GCEO, NNPCL said Nigeria has abundant gas resource which NNPCL as a commercial enterprise is leveraging to monetize the available resources by expanding access to energy to support economic growth, energy access, industrialization and job creation.

He described the project as a giant step towards achieving the NNPC’s goal of adding 5GW to the national power generation by 2024

He said currently NNPC and partners are delivering about 800MW to the national grid from Afam Vl and Okpai Phase thermal power plants with combined installed capacity of 1,100MW, adding that the Okpai Phase 2 project that will add up to 320MW of power to the national grid and progressing with other power plant projects across the country including those along the AKK pipeline route has been completed.

He added that the Gwagwalada IPP is among the NNPC flagship power projects along the AKK corridor which is part of the 3,600MW cumulative power capacity including Kaduna IPP (900MW) and Kano IPP (1,350MW).

The Gwagwalada IPP is among the NNPC flagship power projects along the AKK corridor. will be delivered in collaboration with General Electric as the as the Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM) and China Machinery and Engineering Corporation (CMEC) as the Engineering, Procurement and Construction (EPC) Contractor.

He said this is part of the 3,600MW cumulative power capacity which includes Kaduna IPP (900MW) and Kano IPP (1,350MW)

“Our ambition is to create capital power plants across the country in small scale where transmission issues will not become a major concern; Expanding access to energy will change the game, It will create a better investment climate and promote balanced economic growth, a win-win situation for the Nation and for NNPC as a commercial company,” he said.

The project according to NNPCL was necessitated by the need to deliver gas towards achieving additional power generation capacity in Nigeria and make a substantial contribution to the positioning of gas as the preferred fuel for power.

The first phase of the project has a capacity of 350MW consisting of one gas turbine and one steam turbine

Situated on 54.7 hectares of land at Gwagwalada, Abuja, the project has a combined cycle of three power train blocks of 4500 megawatts (MW) each, Two gas turbines, Two heat recovery and steam generators, one steam turbine and can generate 10.3m MW per hour of electricity.

Power

Stakeholders ask Africa to look inward for hydrocarbon exploration funding

• Demand speedy implementation of PIA, African Energy Bank
Stakeholders at the Nigeria Association for Energy Economics (NAEE) said funding for the exploration of hydrocarbon deposits across Africa should come from the continent instead of looking up to Europe and America for help.

NAEE in a communique signed by its President, Prof. Yinka Omorogbe and Vice- President (Conferences and Publications), Prof Ben Obi, noted that in light of decreased global funding for hydrocarbon activities, Africa needs to realise that funding of non-renewable energy resources needs to come from within.

While most African countries depend heavily on revenue from hydrocarbons, the huge oil and gas reserves may remain untapped due to climate change concerns and reluctance to fund non-renewable energy.

As of December 2020, total private wealth in Africa without the addition of Africans in the diaspora was approximately $2 trillion

The stakeholders lauded the initiative between Africa Petroleum Producers Organisation (APPO) and the AfreximBank to establish the African Energy Bank, which would provide funds for oil, natural gas and other energy projects.

They also agreed that there is an urgent need to implement Nigeria’s roadmap for energy transition, particularly as domestic natural gas consumption expands.

NAEE said gas must become an integral part of the future energy mix, insisting that delays could negatively impact Nigeria’s economic development.

The players stated that the Nigerian oil and gas sector would play a pivotal role in Nigeria’s Energy Transition Plan, and that partnership with the renewable energy sector to jointly drive the implementation would increase the success rate.

The stakeholders, while acknowledging and emphasizing the need for a functional electricity sector with a sustainable, available and affordable electricity supply, said industrialisation would not be possible without a regular power supply.

“Political stability is essential, as are the continuity of government reform and development programmes, which prioritise economic prosperity and the need for meaningful sustainable economic and national development,” the communique said.

The experts hailed the ongoing implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), noting that continuous growth, strengthening, enablement and stability of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (the Commission) and the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority were vital to the growth of Nigeria’s energy sector.

“Nigeria needs to scale up the utilisation of her substantial natural gas resources for the development of her people; therefore, participants recommended the speedy implementation of the provisions in the Petroleum Industry Act that establish the framework for natural gas utilisation, and where needed, any amendments to the law that will create an attractive investment climate,” it stated.

According to the association, the hopes of the rural energy poor lie in the use of off-grid renewable energy sources.

Lauding the initiatives of the Nigerian government to electrify communities outside the electricity grid network through the Rural Electrification Agency, NAEE recommended that the initiatives should be sustained to alleviate poverty.

The current huge burden of subsidy removal on Nigerians, according to the association, could be alleviated by a rapid expansion of measures to speed up the utilisation of natural gas as a substitute for premium motor spirits (PMS).

“These include promoting the activities of the Natural Gas Expansion Programme, the conversion of engines to run on compressed natural gas (CNG) and the speedy deployment of CNG stations all around the country.

“The present crushing effects of the removal of the PMS subsidy need to be alleviated through measures such as mass transportation programmes and others that are directly targeted at most of the affected Nigerians.

“The long-overdue rehabilitation of existing refineries remains a necessity, to promote diversification and guard against monopoly power, noted conference participants,” NAEE said.

News Power Production

NNPC to end oil swap contracts, embrace cash payments for petrol imports

The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) is winding down crude oil swap contracts with traders and will pay cash for petrol imports as private companies could begin importing petrol as soon as this month, according to a Reuters report.

This means that NNPC is in the process of ending crude swap contracts with traders. Instead of exchanging crude oil for refined petroleum products, the state-oil company will now make cash payments for petrol imports.

The move is part of President Bola Tinubu’s plans to deregulate the petrol market and reduce the burden on government finances, the statement said.

President Bola Tinubu on Monday during his inauguration announced that “subsidy is gone” sending the market into a tailspin as those who had the products quickly shut their pumps and long queues emerged across the nation.

NNPC has been importing petrol from consortiums of foreign and local trading firms and repaying them with crude oil via what is known as Direct Sale Direct Purchase (DSDP) contracts since 2016 because it does not have enough cash to pay for the purchases, the statement said.

“In the last four months, we practically terminated all DSDP contracts. And we now have an arm’s-length process where we can pay cash for the imports,” Mele Kyari, group chief executive officer, NNPC told Reuters in an interview late on Saturday.

“This is the first time NNPC has said it is terminating crude swap contracts. By importing less gasoline as private companies import the bulk, NNPC will be able to pay for its purchases in cash.”

Nigeria is Africa’s biggest crude producer but imports most of its refined products after running down its refineries. Nigeria’s petrol import bill hit N5.2 trillion in 2022, the highest in six years, as the quest by the country to wean itself off imported fuel drags.

Read also: Nigerians groan as NNPC, marketers raise petrol price

A significant drop in oil production last year coupled with high global fuel prices due to the war in Ukraine pushed NNPC’s debt to traders higher. It owed the consortiums about $2 billion, a September 2022 NNPC report to the Federation Account Allocation Committee shows, the statement said.

“An industry source with direct knowledge of the matter said NNPC was still allocating crude for fuel swaps for July loading, though less than in previous months. In its report detailing March crude oil loadings, NNPC also allocated crude to the swap contracts held by the consortiums,” Reuters said.

Kyari told Reuters that NNPC’s monopoly on petrol supplies was ending and private firms could start importing as early as this month.

“Nigeria’s total crude and condensate output was at 1.56 million barrels a day (bpd) as of Friday. Nigeria has struggled to meet its Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) oil quota of 1.742 million bpd due to grand oil theft and illegal refining,” Kyari said.

That has raised doubts on whether Nigeria can meet supplies for the 650,000-bpd newly commissioned Dangote Refinery. NNPC has a contract to supply 300,000 bpd to the refinery.

News Power

Port Harcourt refinery to start before end of 2023, says NNPC GMD

Mele Kyari, the Group Managing Director of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) Limited, has promised that the Port Harcourt refinery, located in Rivers State, Nigeria, will kick off production of fuel and other refinery activities before the end of the year.

In an exclusive interview with Arise Television’s “The Morning Show” on Thursday, Kyari said that the reason why the Port Harcourt refinery is behind schedule is because of disruptions in the global supply value chain that were created by the Russia-Ukraine war and are not peculiar to Nigeria.

“Of course there is work going on in the Warri refinery that is already in earnest. For the Kaduna refinery, that is a different situation, and we have awarded the turnaround maintenance for the Kaduna refinery, which is already in place,” he said about the other two federal government refineries.

Read also:Nigerians groan as NNPC, marketers raise petrol price

He admitted that with the Dangote Refinery, local refineries whose turnaround maintenance is nearing completion, and a couple of modular refineries, the country should be expecting a surplus of petroleum products by the end of next year.

“So ultimately, what this means is that we are going to have a surplus of product in the country by the end of next year,” he noted.

He reminded everyone of the projected contribution of the Dangote refinery once commercial production kicks off sometime in July or August.

“Once that happens, you would have a significant volume of PMS—once that happens, we fix our refineries and other modular refineries, and this country will be the hub of petroleum refineries on the continent and a reversal of market choice,” he said.

Earlier in the interview, the Group Managing Director debunked popular views, claiming that once the country starts a whole-scale domestic refinery of petroleum products, the price of fuel and others will come down drastically.

“There is this misconception that once you start to refine locally, the price is going to crash to half the price; that is not correct,” he said. “The distinction between domestic pricing and import pricing is simply two things.”

He listed two major instantaneous benefits outside of this price crash that will come to the country. According to Kyari, the security of the supply of products and businesses around refinery activities will improve.

He said, “First, it gives you security of supply—supply is by your door. You don’t need 14 days to move products from Europe into Nigeria. That goes away; you have access to this product because there’s no disruption in the supply chain. You have a short time to regulate and move around, so it gives you security of supply. This is the number one thing it does.

“Secondly, it creates a market around it for employment, taxes, and so many other benefits that will come to the country.”

He corrected another popular misconception around the pricing of refined petroleum products, saying that the prices of refined products, regardless of area of production, are determined by the international market.

“Therefore, at the gate of your refinery, you are pricing it as if you are getting it from Rotterdam or Amsterdam; that means the conversion of FX that determines the market value is determined by the international market,” he said.

“But there will be a delta; that delta is the cost of freight that builds up in your country. You will see a difference in price as a result of the freight difference,” he added.

Power

Petrol to sell between N478 and N600/ltr as subsidy goes

At the current petrol pricing template, the pump price of petrol will sell anywhere between N478 and N590 per litre, based on the effective dollar rate the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) settles upon following the directive by the new president to reform currency rates, BusinessDay analysis shows.

The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited met with oil marketers to agree on indicative pricing on Tuesday. Mele Kyari, its group chief executive officer, met President Bola Tinubu at the Presidential Villa shortly after he resumed work. The results of these engagements have yet to be made public.

Using the CBN naira-dollar rate of N467/$1, the pump price of petrol could rise to N390 per litre if the government no longer pays subsidy. When the rate allowed for airlines to repatriate funds, which stand at N600/$1, is used, BusinessDay’s calculations show that the effective pump price would be N478 per litre in Lagos.

At the black market rate of N750/$, the picture changes. The product cost rises to N503.91 per litre. Other costs including traders’ margin, freight, NPA port charges, NIMASA, financing costs, jetty storage, and wholesale margin bring the landing cost to N565.34.

When retailers margin, dealers margin and transport cost are added, it brings the price in Lagos to N590.34. The price could average around N600 when it is transported across Nigeria.

The major components that constitute petrol landing cost in Nigeria include product cost, traders and insurance margin, shipping, charges by government agencies, financing and banking charges and storage charges. These come to about N358.24 per litre as landing charges. Another N25 is added based on retailer margins (N15), dealer’s margin (N5) and Transport cost at (N5). This brings the total costs to N383.24.

However, pump price would vary based on station and location and, with the government’s subsidised transport charges, could average at N385 per litre using the official exchange rate. This pump increases to N478 litre using the N600/$1 rate and N600 using N750/$1 as the parallel market rate.

BusinessDay reached this conclusion by analysing the Nigerian government’s current pricing template based on current oil prices and marketers’ surveys on what prices would be at different oil price and dollar rate scenarios.

The current panic buying is contributing to worsening the problem as it gives unscrupulous marketers the avenue to exploit consumers. This is why NNPC Ltd, the marketers’ group and the regulator are calling for calm.

The oil regulator said in a statement that it is working with the NNPC and other key stakeholders to guarantee a smooth transition, avoid supply disruptions, and ensure that consumers are not short-changed in any form.

“Contrary to speculations and concerns, the announcement is in line with the Petroleum Industry Act (2021) which provides for total deregulation of the petroleum downstream sector to drive investment and growth,” the statement said.

The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority assures that there is an ample supply of petrol to meet demand as it has taken necessary steps to ensure distribution channels remain uninterrupted and fuel is readily available at all filling stations across the country.

A joint statement issued by the Major Oil Marketers Association of Nigeria (MOMAN) and the Depot and Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (DAPPMAN), on Tuesday, called for calm.

“In light of the assurance given by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) and the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), we wish to reiterate that there is no cause for alarm,” they said.

“We strongly urge Nigerians to avoid panic buying or stockpiling of petrol. This behaviour not only creates artificial scarcity but also poses a significant safety hazard.”

According to the oil marketers, the NNPCL has assured Nigerians of adequate fuel supply and the NMDPRA is working closely with stakeholders to ensure a seamless transition.

“They are ensuring distribution channels remain uninterrupted, thereby making fuel readily available at all filling stations across the country,” it read. “The decision to phase out this fuel subsidy regime is not merely a fiscal reform; it is a significant stride toward social justice.”

“We understand the concerns regarding potential price increases. However, we expect marketers to maintain reasonable pricing, as NNPCL remains the sole supplier of the product currently,” the Joint statement read.

The oil marketers said they anticipate minimal changes regarding distribution costs, considering the cost of the product constitutes 80 percent of the pump price and pledged to manage these distribution costs diligently to minimize the impact on the pump price in collaboration with the Nigerian Association of Road Transport Owners and other crucial stakeholders,

Some analysts say phased removal is the best option. “My recommendation is that the process should be done in phases,” said Ayodele Oni, energy lawyer and partner at Lagos-based Bloomfield law firm.

Oni said the refineries in the country should be functional and operational to the extent that they can meet the demands of the country. This would certainly reduce the importation of refined products into the country and the associated costs such as haulage, insurance, ship-to-ship transfer costs, etc

Refineries

Since Tinubu’s inaugural speech, labour unions have been kicking against subsidy removal. At a press briefing in Abuja on Tuesday, Festus Osifo and Nuhu Toro, president and general secretary of Trade Union Congress of Nigeria, said they expect the President to be wise with the issue at hand.

“We dare say that this is a very delicate issue that touches on the lives, if not very survival, of particularly the working people, hence ought to have been treated with the utmost caution, and should have been preceded by robust dialogue and consultation with, the representatives of the working people, including professionals, market people, students and the poor masses,” they said in a statement.

The labour leader said they were concerned that Tinubu was not specific in how the plan will work and that Nigerian workers and indeed masses must not be made to suffer the inefficiency of successive governments, adding that they are ready to dialogue with the President.

“We are also worried that in his speech President Tinubu failed to delve into or reveal his plans on how to tackle and address the issue of poor and unchecked deterioration in industrial relations, particularly in the education, health and judiciary sectors, often resulting in prolonged strike and Industrial actions and their attendant adverse effects on society and the economy.”

However, analysts say subsidy actually benefits the rich at the exclusion of the poor.

“Fuel subsidy only rewards the elites, middle class, and rich in Nigeria. If you go to rural areas, you will hardly buy fuel at the regulated pump price. The fuel subsidy that is supposed to help the poor actually helps in intensifying their poverty and misery. So, fuel subsidy is only for the rich and has to go,” said Bongo Adi, a professor of Economics at Lagos Business School.

Labour leaders have also called for fixing the refineries before subsidy is removed but in the current situation, local refining would only save freight and port charges as crude constitutes over 86 percent of the cost.

Tinubu meets Kyari, Emefiele, others

Tinubu on Tuesday met behind closed doors with Godwin Emefiele, governor of CBN, NNPC boss, Kyari, in an apparent effort to address the fallout of fuel subsidy removal.

The meeting was his first official assignment in the Presidential Villa. The President arrived the meeting at about 2:32pm, and was received by Vice President Kashim Shettima, at the foya of the President’s office, accompanied by Tijjani Umar, permanent secretary, State House.

Others include Femi Gbajabiamila, speaker of House of Representatives, Wale Edun, Dele Akake and James Faleke.

Fuel subsidy, a burden on poor Nigerians – Shettima

Shettima described Nigeria’s huge subsidy spendings as a burden placed on poor Nigerians.

Shettima, speaking with State House Journalists on his first day in office at the Presidential Villa, said: “You and I benefit 90 percent from the fuel subsidy, while the poor, 40 percent of Nigerians, benefit very little. And we know the consequences of unveiling a masquerade.”

He said: “The truth of the matter is that it is either we get rid of subsidy or the fuel subsidy gets rid of the Nigerian nation.

“We will get fierce opposition from those benefitting from the oil subsidy scam. But where there is a will, there is a way. Be rest assured that our President is a man of strong will and conviction. In the fullness of time, you will appreciate his noble intentions for the nation. The issue of fuel subsidy will be frontally addressed. The earlier we do so, the better.”

Also speaking on the issue of multiple exchange rates, he said the Tinubu administration would collapse the multiple exchange into one.

He said: “So these are two big elephants in the room and as the days go by, we will be unveiling our agenda. He is going to unveil his agenda because as I have always said, there can never be two captains in a ship. He is the president and commander-in-chief of the armed forces.

“I’m the vice president. Your relevance is directly proportional to the level of your loyalty to the president. This is a gentleman that I have known for well over a decade; that I have interacted closely with. Be rest assured that we are going to work harmoniously as a team, as a family for the greater good of our nation.”

Read also: Fuel subsidy crisis: Tonye Cole urges Tinubu to discuss more with labour

FG owes NNPC N2.8trn, says Kyari

Also speaking on the subsidy issue, Kyari told journalists that the federal government owed the NNPC N2.8 trillion for money expended on fuel subsidy.

He revealed that the federal government “no longer have the money to pay the agency money spent on subsidy” adding that government has not paid NNPCL for subsidy for about two years.

Kyari also affirmed that the subsidy is no longer sustainable as it has made it impossible for the company to funds to fund its operations.

Kyari said the petrol queues that have resurfaced are understandable as marketers would like to understand the meaning of the president’s pronouncement that “subsidy is gone.”

He urged Nigerians to avoid panic buying, adding that the NNPCL has enough stock. “What you are seeing is normal because consumers will like to rush to the filing stations to fill their tanks, while the marketers will want to take advantage of the situation. The combined the two is what you are seeing play out.”

The NNPCL boss assured that government will initiate measures to cushion the effects of the removal of subsidy.